WASHINGTON, July 7 (San Diego News Online) — NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says El Niño conditions are already present in the equatorial Pacific and are expected to strengthen through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026-27.
For people tracking seasonal weather and coastal flood risk, the practical step is to follow NOAA’s updates over the next several months, especially if you live in an area where high tides and storm water can add up.
What NOAA says
In its June 11 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center placed the El Niño Alert System at “El Niño Advisory.” The agency said above-average sea-surface temperatures have developed across the central to eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
NOAA reported the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index at +0.7°C. It also said the Niño-4 index was +0.7°C and the Niño-1+2 index was +2.1°C. These are temperature markers forecasters use to track where the Pacific is warming.
The center said its NMME average, including the NCEP CFSv2 model, points to El Niño getting stronger into winter 2026-27. NOAA also said there is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January, which it said could rank among the largest events in the historical record going back to 1950.
How El Niño works
El Niño is the warm phase of ENSO, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle. In plain terms, it means ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are running above average, and that can change wind and weather patterns far beyond the ocean itself.
The opposite phase is La Niña. Between the two is ENSO-neutral, when Pacific waters are closer to average.
El Niño does not control day-to-day weather. It shifts the odds of seasonal patterns. A strong El Niño can tilt winter conditions in parts of the U.S., but it does not guarantee a specific storm, snowfall, or temperature at any one place.
Why it matters in the U.S.
NOAA says El Niño can influence weather across many locations in the United States. NOAA’s Ocean Service also says it can raise the chances of high-tide flooding in some places, especially when water levels are already near their limit.
For Washington-area readers, that makes this a seasonal planning issue more than a local emergency. The forecast is mainly useful for people who watch winter outlooks, coastal flooding information, and other NOAA updates that can change as the season approaches.
What to watch next
NOAA’s forecast is about a trend, not a fixed outcome. The agency says El Niño is present now and expected to strengthen, but the atmosphere and ocean can still change before winter.
The most important window in NOAA’s outlook is November through January, when it says the chance of a very strong El Niño is highest.
Bottom line: NOAA says El Niño is here, it is likely to grow stronger, and the next major checkpoint is Northern Hemisphere winter 2026-27.