Study: Leaving California Cuts Housing Costs, Boosts Homeownership — Movers Save $672 a Month
A California Policy Lab study at UC Berkeley finds Californians who relocated out of state between 2016 and 2025 saved an average $672 per month on housing, increasing homeownership odds and altering migration patterns and local market pressures.
- Monthly housing savings: Movers saved an average of $672 — from $2,376 to $1,705 per month (California Policy Lab analysis reported by Los Angeles Times).
- Renter relief: Out-of-state renters saw rents fall about 30%, roughly $631 monthly (Realtor.com).
- Cheaper homes: Median home prices in destination neighborhoods were about $396,000 lower — ~48% less (Fox Business).
- Higher ownership odds: Movers out of California were 11 percentage points more likely to own after seven years (a 48% relative increase); inbound movers to California gained 6 points (27% relative) (Los Angeles Times).
What the study examined
The California Policy Lab at UC Berkeley analyzed anonymized household-level data tracking the same people from 2016 through 2025. The report, titled “Priced Out: Relocation Amidst California’s Affordability Crisis,” compares monthly housing costs — including rent or mortgage payments, utilities, property taxes and insurance — before and after moves. The lab matched neighborhoods people left with neighborhoods they moved to and measured changes in costs, incomes and homeownership rates over time (reporting by the Los Angeles Times).
Savings and homeownership gains
Key finding: People who left California tended to land in much cheaper housing markets. Average monthly housing costs fell from $2,376 to $1,705, a savings of $672. Renters’ monthly costs dropped by roughly 30% (about $631). Homeowners saw median home prices in destination neighborhoods about $396,000 lower — a near 48% decrease. In the neighborhoods people moved to outside California, 60% of residents owned their homes, compared with 53% in the California neighborhoods they left (Realtor.com; Fox Business; Los Angeles Times).
Longer-term effects on ownership
The lab tracked changes seven years after moves. Those who left California were 11 percentage points more likely to own a home than before they left — a 48% relative increase. By contrast, people who moved into California were 6 percentage points more likely to own after seven years, a 27% relative increase. The data indicate moves out of state often yield a stronger path to homeownership than moves into California (Los Angeles Times).
Who is leaving — and why
Departures are not limited to lower-income renters. The study finds an increasing share of people leaving come from more affluent neighborhoods — about 8.7% more affluent than pre-pandemic departures — including remote-working professionals from parts of the Bay Area. Many leave to lock in cheaper housing, more square footage, or a yard. As Evan White, co-founder of the lab, notes:
“Savings can be large — nearly $700 a month for some — but leaving California is often driven by necessity rather than preference, and many are reluctant to give up community ties.”
(Reporting: Los Angeles Times; Fox Business).
Migration flows by state
Most moves went to nearby lower-cost Western states. Per 10,000 Californians (2016–2025), the top net destination states were: Nevada (+81), Idaho (+64), Oregon (+37), Arizona (+36), followed by Texas (+11), Tennessee (+13) and Florida (+4). The pattern shows many Californians favor shorter moves where costs are lower but amenities and job links remain accessible (Los Angeles Times).
Moves within and to California
Not all moves reduce costs. People who moved within California saw small increases in average monthly housing costs — from $2,263 to $2,277. People moving into California from out of state often faced large jumps: average monthly housing costs rose from $1,754 before moving to $2,418 after moving into California. These internal shifts underscore how costly the California housing market remains compared with many other parts of the country (Realtor.com; Los Angeles Times).
Income and affordability trade-offs
The study finds incomes in destination states are sometimes slightly lower than in California. But the drop in housing and living costs usually more than offsets those differences, making home purchases and monthly budgeting easier for many movers. In short: people often trade higher pay for lower bills, resulting in more disposable income and a clearer path to owning a home (Fox Business; Los Angeles Times).
Reporting and sources
This summary draws from the California Policy Lab’s analysis and reporting by major outlets. See full reporting at the Los Angeles Times, related coverage at Realtor.com and Fox Business. Additional background and presentation material are available from a related public presentation from the California Policy Lab.
Implications for Paso Robles
Local housing market: Paso Robles could see lower rental demand if residents leave, easing rent pressure, while also attracting buyers priced out of coastal metros — which could push up local home prices and change the market mix.
Homeownership rates and community stability: An influx of former Californians who can now afford to buy may raise homeownership rates, boosting neighborhood stability and property-tax revenue.
Jobs and local economy: New homeowners often spend on local services, schools and repairs, benefiting small businesses. Conversely, out-migration of working families or younger workers could tighten the local labor pool.
Fiscal and policy impacts: Changes in population and housing mix affect city budgets. More homeowners can broaden the property-tax base but also raise demand for infrastructure and services; leaders should balance growth with preserving agricultural land, tourism assets and town character.
Practical effects for residents: For families weighing a move, the numbers are clear: relocating can lower housing costs and make buying a home more attainable. Those staying should expect continued affordability pressure absent broader policy change or increased housing supply. Local buyers, sellers and renters should consult real estate professionals and monitor inventory and financing trends.
Reporting on these trends can help Paso Robles leaders, homeowners, renters and small businesses make informed choices about housing, workforce planning and long-term community goals.
